Kleros Case 302: Evidence

The Question

Question: Will there be a day with at least 1000 reported Corona death in the US in the first 14 days of July?

Answer: Yes.

Video: Opening Statements

Hello, I'm speaking to you today as a representative for the Ethereum user who requested arbitration for Kleros court case 302.

With data sourced from Johns Hopkins University, the website StatNews.com reported that Coronavirus deaths in the US reached or exceeded 1000 on two days during the given time period; first, on July 7th, at 1114 deaths, and second, on July 9th, at 1000 deaths. StatNews is a reputable source and was among the first to report on Coronavirus according to the New York Times. Omen Verified Market rules clearly indicate that no specific data source is required at the time of market creation, and the market in question was in fact accepted as "Valid" by the Omen Verified Markets TCR. Because Stat is a reputable data source, and because no data source was specified, reporting by StatNews fulfills the criteria for a "Yes" resolution. Furthermore, the Omen market asks us not how many deaths there were, but rather how many were "REPORTED". Thus, any reasonable interpretation of this question resolves to an answer of "Yes".

Remember: If the data fit, you must acquit. Vote "Yes" on Kleros court case 302.

Key Points

Summary

With data sourced from Johns Hopkins University, the website StatNews.com reported that Coronavirus deaths in the US reached or exceeded 1000 on two days during the given time period; first, on July 7th, at 1114 deaths, and second, on July 9th, at 1000 deaths. StatNews is a reputable source and was among the first to report on Coronavirus according to the New York Times. Omen Verified Market rules clearly indicate that no specific data source is required at the time of market creation, and the market in question was in fact accepted as "Valid" by the Omen Verified Markets TCR. Because Stat is a reputable data source, and because no data source was specified by the market, reporting by StatNews fulfills the criteria for a "Yes" resolution. Furthermore, the Omen market asks us not how many deaths there were, but rather how many were "reported". Thus, any fair and impartial interpretation of this question resolves to an answer of Yes.

StatNews

Stat was among the first to report on Coronavirus according to the New York Times. For convenience, images clearly demonstrating data matching the criteria for Yes are available here.

July 7, 2020

July 9, 2020

StatNews raw data
- Data archive
- Data archive (beautified)

In addition to the archived data above, this information can be verified by visiting StatNews.com's Covid-19 Tracker, changing the selection on the left to "United States" from "Worldwide", changing the "2 Week" reporting to "1 Day", and mousing over July 7 and July 9, 2020.

1Point3Acres

Additionally, 1Point3Acres indicates that there were 1005 Coronavirus deaths on July 1, 2020.

July 1, 2020

Link: Global COVID-19 Tracker & Interactive Charts - United States

“COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres”. coronavirus.1point3acres.com. Retrieved 18 July 2020.

Their website states:

We manually aggregate data from official government websites and latest news reports. Our volunteers fact-check and de-dup all the updates to bring accurate information. All cases have links to credible sources.

Omen Market Rules

Link: Omen Market Rules PDF
Link: Omen Verified Market Rules PDF

Additional Considerations

Many existing and resolved markets follow the same pattern, providing no specific source, as allowed by the Omen rules. To fail to rule in favor of a Yes verdict would undermine the integrity of the Omen platform in that any contentious market could later be strategically disputed, weighting the odds of a profitable result to No, even if the objective answer is Yes. For the Omen prediction market platform to function as a source of truth:
- A single, reputable data source which meets the criteria for Yes must result in a market resolution of Yes under the current rules of the Omen platform. Impartial third parties cannot arbitrarily dismiss a data source in retrospect, nor can they in good conscience apply any arbitrary arithmetic or other creative interpretation to the available data in retrospect.
- This is the largest and most prominent case in Kleros history; it will set a precedent. It is thus critical to the Kleros platform for the Jury to rule fairly and coherently in accordance with the above information.
The party requesting arbitration was not provided a platform to submit evidence before the Jury despite the fact that it is natively supported by kleros.io; this functionality exists but is simply not implemented. This represents a fundamental flaw on the part of the dispute process presented by Omen and realit.io and interferes with or entirely precludes the ability of the Jury to fairly consider all available evidence.

As DAOtalk user omenomicon noted:

This dispute is the result of two things: a lack of a source requirement on the part of the platform and a lack of familiarity with the subject matter on the part of those who took positions in the market.

And as DAOtalk user sky noted:

As to the question “Would the people who bet NO have bet NO if they were aware of the STAT reporting source on July 10th?!”

Much of the contention surrounding this Omen market is a result of a lack of awareness of Stat. Prediction markets by design must reward users who are most familiar with the subject and who do the most research; those who provide the most accurate information should be rewarded over those who do not, as this is what separates prediction markets from simple gambling.

Closing Statements

This market was accepted as Valid by the Omen Verified Markets TCR via Kleros Curate. Thus, traders took positions on the basis of the rules presented by both.
Because no source was specified at the time of the market's creation, StatNews.com's reporting of 1114 deaths on July 7 fulfills the criteria of a Yes resolution.
- Additionally, StatNews.com's reporting of 1000 deaths on July 9 fulfills the criteria of a Yes resolution.
Data from 1Point3Acres on July 1 indicating 1005 deaths also fulfill the criteria of a Yes resolution.
Because the market specifies reported deaths, any credible reports, including StatNews.com's report of 1114 deaths on July 7, fulfill the criteria of a Yes resolution.

reported /rəˈpôrdəd/ adjective

having been formally or officially announced or described. "an increase in reported crime"

Thus, any fair and impartial interpretation of this question resolves to an answer of Yes.

case302/README.md